Sao Paulo 41%Draw 25%Corinthians 34%Expected goals 1.21 – 1.07
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
1
Value bet: Sao Paulo to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSao Paulo to win ✗41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.48
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Thursday 5 November: Sao Paulo v Corinthians in the Serie A, played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Corinthians are 17th (lower half) with 37.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Bahia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Corinthians, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Mirassol, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sao Paulo, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Corinthians.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.2 xG, Corinthians 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 41%, draw 25%, Corinthians 34%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Sao Paulo to win @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–1 Corinthians. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo41%fair 2.43 · @2.60
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.00
Corinthians34%fair 2.94 · @3.00
2.28Expected goals
1.21Sao Paulo xG
1.07Corinthians xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.2 – 1.1 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✗
41%
2.43
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.05
Draw no bet
Sao Paulo (draw no bet)
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Corinthians +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
1.05
First team to score
Sao Paulo to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.48
–
Recent results
Sao Paulo – last 6
LDWWLL
29 Oct
@ Bahia
2–3
L
24 Oct
@ Mirassol
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Corinthians – last 6
WLDLLL
31 Oct
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
24 Oct
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–3
L
20 Oct
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
11 Oct
@ Palmeiras
1–4
L
7 Oct
@ Internacional
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Fluminense
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Corinthians.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Corinthians 34%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
Sao Paulo vs Corinthians (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
