Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultMirassol to win42% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.96
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:30 WAT, Saturday 14 November: Mirassol v Atletico-MG in the Serie A, played at José Maria de Campos Maia. In the table, Mirassol are 14th, lower half, on 40 points after 34 matches; Atletico-MG are 7th (upper half) with 50.
Current form
Mirassol, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Chapecoense-sc, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Atletico-MG, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Gremio, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Mirassol, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.2 for Atletico-MG.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mirassol 1.3 xG, Atletico-MG 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mirassol 42%, draw 26%, Atletico-MG 32%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Atletico-MG to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mirassol 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mirassol42%fair 2.39 · @2.00
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.60
Atletico-MG32%fair 3.12 · @3.50
2.45Expected goals
1.30Mirassol xG
1.16Atletico-MG xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.3 – 1.2 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
Attack vs Serie A average
-9%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-20%
Our expected goals here
1.12
1.09
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win
42%
2.39
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.70
1.75
Draw no bet
Mirassol (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Atletico-MG +0.5 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.36
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.12
First team to score
Mirassol to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
11.96
–
Recent results
Mirassol – last 6
WLDWLD
3 Nov
@ Chapecoense-sc
2–1
W
31 Oct
@ Corinthians
0–2
L
24 Oct
vs Sao Paulo
1–1
D
17 Oct
vs Internacional
2–0
W
11 Oct
@ Bahia
0–1
L
7 Oct
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
DLLLLL
7 Nov
vs Gremio
1–1
D
5 Nov
@ Botafogo
0–1
L
1 Nov
@ Gremio
0–2
L
29 Oct
vs Cruzeiro
0–1
L
27 Oct
@ Flamengo
2–3
L
21 Oct
@ Atletico Torque
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atletico-MG 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at José Maria de Campos Maia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
