Sao Paulo 38%Draw 27%Fluminense 35%Expected goals 1.22 – 1.22
76%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.28
8/10Rating
1.28Odds
2
Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultSao Paulo to win38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.66
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Friday 20 November: Sao Paulo v Fluminense in the Serie A, played at Estadio Do MorumBIS. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Fluminense are 4th (among the top four) with 57. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Corinthians, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Fluminense, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Vitoria, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.2 xG, Fluminense 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 38%, draw 27%, Fluminense 35%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Fluminense to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–1 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo38%fair 2.63 · @2.30
Draw27%fair 3.66 · @3.20
Fluminense35%fair 2.89 · @3.10
2.43Expected goals
1.22Sao Paulo xG
1.22Fluminense xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.2 – 1.2 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
+22%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.09
1.20
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win
38%
2.63
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.38
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.80
1.80
Draw no bet
Sao Paulo (draw no bet)
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Sao Paulo +0.5 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.08
First team to score
Fluminense to score first
46%
2.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fluminense / FT Fluminense
21%
4.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.66
–
Recent results
Sao Paulo – last 6
DLDWWL
5 Nov
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
29 Oct
@ Bahia
2–3
L
24 Oct
@ Mirassol
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
WWLWLL
7 Nov
@ Vitoria
3–0
W
28 Oct
vs Internacional
2–1
W
24 Oct
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
22 Oct
@ Palmeiras
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
15 Oct
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Fluminense 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Fluminense?
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 20 November 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
