Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✓61% · @1.37
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓83% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leon travel to face Guadalajara Chivas on Thursday 19 March in the Liga MX, with Estadio Akron the venue – the ball rolls at 03:07 WAT.
Current form
Guadalajara Chivas, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Santos Laguna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Leon, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Club Tijuana, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Guadalajara Chivas, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Leon.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Guadalajara Chivas 1.9 xG, Leon 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Guadalajara Chivas 61%, draw 21%, Leon 17%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Leon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Guadalajara Chivas61%fair 1.63 · @1.37
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @4.85
Leon17%fair 5.85 · @7.50
2.86Expected goals
1.88Guadalajara Chivas xG
0.98Leon xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: Guadalajara Chivas 1.9 – 1.0 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Guadalajara Chivas
Leon
Attack vs Liga MX average
+8%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
-25%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.69
1.02
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guadalajara Chivas to win✓
61%
1.63
1.37
Double chance
Guadalajara Chivas or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.77 ▲
Draw no bet
Guadalajara Chivas (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Leon +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.22
First team to score
Guadalajara Chivas to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Guadalajara Chivas ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guadalajara Chivas / FT Guadalajara Chivas✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Guadalajara Chivas – last 5
WWLLW
15 Mar
vs Santos Laguna
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlas
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Toluca
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Cruz Azul
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Club America
1–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Leon – last 5
LLWWL
15 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Mazatlán
2–4
L
1 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Monterrey
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guadalajara Chivas and Leon.
What is the prediction for Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon?
On our numbers Guadalajara Chivas have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leon 17%.
How many goals will there be in Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 03:07 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
