Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓72% · @1.32
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓90% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.52
Toluca vs FC Juarez: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 9 March the Liga MX brings Toluca against FC Juarez at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; FC Juarez are 18th (in the drop zone) with 11. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Toluca, last 4: WWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over U.N.A.M. - Pumas, away. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
FC Juarez, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Club America, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Toluca, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.0 for FC Juarez.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.4 xG, FC Juarez 0.8 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 72%, draw 18%, FC Juarez 10%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–0 FC Juarez. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca72%fair 1.40 · @1.32
Draw18%fair 5.47 · @4.75
FC Juarez10%fair 9.90 · @9.60
3.24Expected goals
2.39Toluca xG
0.85FC Juarez xG
56%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
2–110%
1–09%
3–09%
1–18%
3–18%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.4 – 0.8 FC Juarez expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
FC Juarez
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
-25%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
+24%
Our expected goals here
2.59
0.97
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
72%
1.40
1.32
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.14
–
Asian handicap
Toluca -1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
First team to score
Toluca to score first
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.52
–
Recent results
Toluca – last 4
WWWW
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FC Juarez – last 3
WWL
5 Mar
@ Club America
2–1
W
28 Feb
vs Atlas
3–1
W
15 Feb
vs Necaxa
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and FC Juarez.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Toluca vs FC Juarez?
On our numbers Toluca have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and FC Juarez 10%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs FC Juarez?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs FC Juarez?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–0 FC Juarez, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs FC Juarez?
Toluca vs FC Juarez (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 9 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
