Puebla welcome Leon to Estadio Cuauhtemoc for a Liga MX fixture on Saturday 11 April (02:00 WAT).
Current form
Puebla, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FC Juarez, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Leon, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Atlas, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Puebla 1.4 xG, Leon 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Puebla 39%, draw 25%, Leon 36%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Puebla 1–1 Leon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Puebla39%fair 2.56 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.50
Leon36%fair 2.79 · @2.88
2.80Expected goals
1.39Puebla xG
1.41Leon xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–08%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Puebla 1.4 – 1.4 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Puebla
Leon
Attack vs Liga MX average
-19%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.26
1.40
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Puebla to win✗
39%
2.56
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.57
Draw no bet
Puebla (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Puebla +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.15
First team to score
Leon to score first✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.07
–
Recent results
Puebla – last 6
DLDLWW
4 Apr
vs FC Juarez
1–1
D
23 Mar
@ Santos Laguna
1–2
L
14 Mar
vs Necaxa
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Tigres UANL
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leon – last 6
WWLLLW
5 Apr
vs Atlas
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Guadalajara Chivas
0–5
L
15 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Mazatlán
2–4
L
1 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Puebla and Leon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Puebla vs Leon?
On our numbers Puebla have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Leon 36%.
How many goals will there be in Puebla vs Leon?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puebla vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Puebla 1–1 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Puebla vs Leon?
Puebla vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtemoc.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
