Toluca 65%Draw 20%Atletico San Luis 15%Expected goals 2.09 – 0.97
65%
Betarazi pick
Toluca to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.38 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.38Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗65% · @1.38
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓85% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico San Luis travel to face Toluca on Monday 13 April in the Liga MX, with Estadio Nemesio Diez the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; Atletico San Luis are 14th (lower half) with 19.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Los Angeles Galaxy, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Atletico San Luis, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Monterrey, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.1 xG, Atletico San Luis 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 65%, draw 20%, Atletico San Luis 15%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Toluca to win (65%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–0 Atletico San Luis. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca65%fair 1.53 · @1.38
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @4.80
Atletico San Luis15%fair 6.85 · @7.30
3.06Expected goals
2.09Toluca xG
0.97Atletico San Luis xG
59%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.1 – 1.0 Atletico San Luis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-5%
Our expected goals here
1.99
1.06
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
65%
1.53
1.38
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.73
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Toluca -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
First team to score
Toluca to score first
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Toluca – last 6
WLDWDL
9 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs San Diego
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Atlas
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ San Diego
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico San Luis – last 6
WLDLWL
5 Apr
@ Monterrey
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Leon
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Pachuca
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Cruz Azul
0–3
L
4 Mar
vs Mazatlán
4–1
W
1 Mar
vs Puebla
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Atletico San Luis.
What is the prediction for Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
On our numbers Toluca have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Atletico San Luis 15%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–0 Atletico San Luis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
