Dundalk vs Derry City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Friday 29 May: Dundalk v Derry City in the Premier Division, played at Oriel Park. In the table, Dundalk are 6th, lower half, on 45 points after 36 matches; Derry City are 5th (upper half) with 48. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Dundalk, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Drogheda United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Derry City, last 5: DDLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Shelbourne, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (10 Apr 2026) it ended Dundalk 2–2 Derry City. The last 2 head-to-heads: Dundalk 0 wins, Derry City 0, draws 2. Those games averaged 4.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Dundalk 1.5 xG, Derry City 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Dundalk 40%, draw 24%, Derry City 36%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Dundalk 1–1 Derry City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Dundalk40%fair 2.52 · @2.32
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.40
Derry City36%fair 2.78 · @2.92
2.91Expected goals
1.47Dundalk xG
1.44Derry City xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Dundalk 1.5 – 1.4 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Dundalk vs Derry City?
On our numbers Dundalk have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Derry City 36%.
How many goals will there be in Dundalk vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is Dundalk 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 29 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Oriel Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
