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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Kerry v UCD: numbers & prediction

First Division · Ireland · Mounthawk Park

Kerry

LLWWW
1–1
FT

UCD

LWLDW
Kerry 38%Draw 22%UCD 40% Expected goals 1.34 – 1.40
76%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultUCD to win ✗40% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.80

Kerry vs UCD: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Kerry welcome UCD to Mounthawk Park for a First Division fixture on Friday 21 August (19:45 WAT).

Current form

Kerry, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Sligo Rovers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

UCD, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Derry City, at home. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.

Head to head

When they last met (19 Jun 2026) it ended UCD 0–1 Kerry. The last 3 head-to-heads: Kerry 1 win, UCD 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Kerry 1.3 xG, UCD 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Kerry 38%, draw 22%, UCD 40%.
  • GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kerry 1–1 UCD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Kerry38%fair 2.64 · @2.66
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.40
UCD40%fair 2.47 · @2.50
2.74Expected goals
1.34Kerry xG
1.40UCD xG
63%Both score
52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%

From our goals model: Kerry 1.3 – 1.4 UCD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultUCD to win ✗40%2.472.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78%1.281.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓63%1.601.60
Draw no betUCD (draw no bet)52%1.93–
Asian handicapKerry +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓61%1.63–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.321.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗52%1.921.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓69%1.441.38
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓84%1.191.14
First team to scoreUCD to score first ✓48%2.09–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗42%2.39–
Half-time / full-timeHT UCD / FT UCD ✗22%4.46–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%11.80–

Recent results

Kerry – last 6

LLWWWD
15 Aug@ Sligo Rovers0–4L
7 Aug@ Cork City1–3L
3 Augvs Cobh Ramblers3–0W
31 Jul@ Bray Wanderers4–0W
24 Julvs Finn Harps2–1W
17 Julvs Shelbourne2–2D
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

UCD – last 6

LWLDWW
14 Augvs Derry City1–2L
7 Augvs Wexford4–1W
3 Augvs Treaty United1–2L
31 Jul@ Athlone Town0–0D
24 Julvs Cork City5–2W
17 Jul@ Treaty United2–1W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

19 Jun 2026UCD v Kerry0–1
10 Apr 2026Kerry v UCD1–1
13 Feb 2026UCD v Kerry2–1
Kerry vs UCD head-to-head page →

First Division table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Cork City362367+3975
2UCD3616812+1656
3Bray Wanderers3615912+1454
4Kerry FC36141012+452
5Longford Town36141012+352
6Cobh Ramblers3614715-849
7Athlone Town3613914-148
8Wexford3611916-1442
9Treaty United3611916-1642
10Finn Harps367722-3728

More First Division predictions

League hub
FT Finn Harps1 Cobh Ramblers3 128%3.15X21%3.60251%2.10 1.1–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Treaty United2 Cork City2 115%6.00X19%4.00266%1.53 0.8–2.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Wexford0 Athlone Town2 145%2.18X21%3.50234%3.05 1.4–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kerry vs UCD?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Kerry vs UCD?

On our numbers Kerry have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 22% and UCD 40%.

How many goals will there be in Kerry vs UCD?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Kerry vs UCD?

Our predicted score is Kerry 1–1 UCD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Kerry vs UCD?

Kerry vs UCD (First Division) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Mounthawk Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.