Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 54% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLanus to win ✗42% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.68
Lanus vs Independiente: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lanus welcome Independiente to Estadio Ciudad de Lanus for a Liga Profesional Argentina fixture on Monday 17 August (21:00 WAT). In the table, Lanus are 9th, upper half, on 50 points after 32 matches; Independiente are 13th (upper half) with 47. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lanus, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Talleres Cordoba, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Independiente, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Atletico Tucuman, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lanus 1.2 xG, Independiente 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lanus 42%, draw 25%, Independiente 33%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (62%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lanus 1–1 Independiente. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lanus42%fair 2.37 · @2.28
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.92
Independiente33%fair 3.03 · @3.50
2.18Expected goals
1.18Lanus xG
1.00Independiente xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Lanus 1.2 – 1.0 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lanus to win✗
42%
2.37
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Lanus (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Independiente +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.60
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.13
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
1.04
First team to score
Lanus to score first✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lanus / FT Lanus✗
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.68
–
Recent results
Lanus – last 6
WLLLWW
12 Aug
@ Talleres Cordoba
3–0
W
6 Aug
@ Union Santa Fe
1–2
L
3 Aug
vs Instituto Cordoba
0–1
L
30 Jul
@ Cienciano
0–4
L
26 Jul
vs San Lorenzo
1–0
W
23 Jul
vs Cienciano
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente – last 6
LLLWWW
12 Aug
@ Atletico Tucuman
0–4
L
9 Aug
vs Platense
0–1
L
3 Aug
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–1
L
31 Jul
vs Newells Old Boys
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Estudiantes L.P.
2–0
W
23 May
@ Union Santa Fe
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lanus and Independiente.
What is the prediction for Lanus vs Independiente?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Lanus vs Independiente?
On our numbers Lanus have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lanus vs Independiente?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lanus vs Independiente?
Our predicted score is Lanus 1–1 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Lanus vs Independiente?
Lanus vs Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Barracas Central0
Rosario Central1
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0
Atletico Tucuman1