Union Santa Fe 62%Draw 21%Sarmiento Junin 17%Expected goals 1.75 – 0.76
83%
Betarazi pick
Union Santa Fe or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Union Santa Fe to win @ 1.83 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUnion Santa Fe to win ✓62% · @1.83
Double chanceUnion Santa Fe or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.58
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Union Santa Fe welcome Sarmiento Junin to Estadio 15 de Abril for a Liga Profesional Argentina fixture on Friday 28 August (23:00 WAT). In the table, Union Santa Fe are 16th, lower half, on 42 points after 32 matches; Sarmiento Junin are 19th (lower half) with 40. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Union Santa Fe, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Aldosivi, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Sarmiento Junin, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Estudiantes L.P., at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Sarmiento Junin, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Union Santa Fe.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Feb 2026) it ended Sarmiento Junin 1–3 Union Santa Fe.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Union Santa Fe 1.8 xG, Sarmiento Junin 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Union Santa Fe 62%, draw 21%, Sarmiento Junin 17%.
Lower-risk option: Union Santa Fe or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Union Santa Fe to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Union Santa Fe or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento Junin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Union Santa Fe62%fair 1.61 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.35
Sarmiento Junin17%fair 5.99 · @4.40
2.51Expected goals
1.75Union Santa Fe xG
0.76Sarmiento Junin xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Union Santa Fe 1.8 – 0.8 Sarmiento Junin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Our pick is Union Santa Fe or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
On our numbers Union Santa Fe have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sarmiento Junin 17%.
How many goals will there be in Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Our predicted score is Union Santa Fe 1–0 Sarmiento Junin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 15 de Abril.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
