Value bet: San Lorenzo to win @ 3.80 – our chance 29% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBoca Juniors to win ✓47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.27
San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:45 WAT, Sunday 20 September: San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina, played at Pedro Bidegain. In the table, San Lorenzo are 18th, lower half, on 41 points after 32 matches; Boca Juniors are 1st (leading the league) with 63. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
San Lorenzo, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Independiente, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Boca Juniors, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sao Paulo, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Boca Juniors, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for San Lorenzo.
Head to head
When they last met (11 Mar 2026) it ended Boca Juniors 1–1 San Lorenzo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Lorenzo 0.8 xG, Boca Juniors 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Lorenzo 29%, draw 24%, Boca Juniors 47%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: San Lorenzo to win @3.80 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 2.10 – longer than our fair 1.91, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Lorenzo 1–1 Boca Juniors. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Lorenzo29%fair 3.44 · @3.80
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.00
Boca Juniors47%fair 2.14 · @2.05
1.96Expected goals
0.81San Lorenzo xG
1.15Boca Juniors xG
52%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–014%
1–113%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 0.8 – 1.1 Boca Juniors expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Boca Juniors 47%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 1–1 Boca Juniors, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Pedro Bidegain.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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