Toluca W 88%Draw 8%Necaxa W 4%Expected goals 3.56 – 0.67
63%
Betarazi pick
Over 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca W to win ✓88% · @1.02
Double chanceToluca W or draw ✓96% · fair 1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.28
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓81% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗11% · fair 9.10
Toluca W vs Necaxa W: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:00 WAT, Saturday 21 March: Toluca W v Necaxa W in the Liga MX Femenil. In the table, Toluca W are 6th, upper half, on 27 points after 14 matches; Necaxa W are 18th (in the drop zone) with 1. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Toluca W, last 4: LWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to América W, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Necaxa W, last 3: DLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atlético San Luis W, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Toluca W, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.3 for Necaxa W.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca W 3.6 xG, Necaxa W 0.7 xG – a total near 4.2. That is an open game on paper: 81% for three or more goals, 46% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca W 88%, draw 8%, Necaxa W 4%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.28.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca W 4–0 Necaxa W. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca W88%fair 1.14 · @1.02
Draw8%fair 12.71 · @19.00
Necaxa W4%fair 24.30 · @31.00
4.23Expected goals
3.56Toluca W xG
0.67Necaxa W xG
46%Both score
81%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–011%
4–010%
2–09%
3–17%
5–07%
4–17%
From our goals model: Toluca W 3.6 – 0.7 Necaxa W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca W
Necaxa W
Attack vs Liga MX Femenil average
+17%
-57%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+90%
Our expected goals here
4.15
0.68
Our own ratings from every Liga MX Femenil result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca W to win✓
88%
1.14
1.02
Double chance
Toluca W or draw✓
96%
1.04
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.28
Draw no bet
Toluca W (draw no bet)✓
96%
1.05
–
Asian handicap
Toluca W -2 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.15
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.80
First team to score
Toluca W to score first✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Toluca W ahead at half-time✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca W / FT Toluca W✓
68%
1.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
11%
9.10
–
Recent results
Toluca W – last 4
LWWD
17 Mar
@ América W
0–2
L
13 Mar
vs Pumas UNAM W
4–2
W
21 Feb
@ Santos Laguna W
1–0
W
17 Feb
vs Pachuca W
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Necaxa W – last 3
DLL
15 Mar
vs Atlético San Luis W
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ Cruz Azul W
0–3
L
15 Feb
vs Santos Laguna W
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca W and Necaxa W.
Our pick is Over 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Toluca W vs Necaxa W?
On our numbers Toluca W have a 88% chance of winning, the draw 8% and Necaxa W 4%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca W vs Necaxa W?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 81% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca W vs Necaxa W?
Our predicted score is Toluca W 4–0 Necaxa W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is Toluca W vs Necaxa W?
Toluca W vs Necaxa W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán W