León W 30%Draw 22%Toluca W 48%Expected goals 1.58 – 1.81
67%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
1
Value bet: León W to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultToluca W to win ✗48% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.47
León W vs Toluca W: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
León W welcome Toluca W for a Liga MX Femenil fixture on Wednesday 1 April (00:00 WAT). In the table, León W are 7th, upper half, on 25 points after 14 matches; Toluca W are 6th (upper half) with 27. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
León W, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Pumas UNAM W, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Toluca W, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Mazatlán W, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Toluca W, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.6 for León W.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give León W 1.6 xG, Toluca W 1.8 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 67% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – León W 30%, draw 22%, Toluca W 48%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.48.
Price worth noting: León W to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (67%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: León W 1–1 Toluca W. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
León W30%fair 3.36 · @3.60
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.70
Toluca W48%fair 2.08 · @1.91
3.39Expected goals
1.58León W xG
1.81Toluca W xG
67%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
0–26%
From our goals model: León W 1.6 – 1.8 Toluca W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
León W
Toluca W
Attack vs Liga MX Femenil average
-1%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
-11%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.80
1.70
Our own ratings from every Liga MX Femenil result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca W to win✗
48%
2.08
1.91
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
1.48
Draw no bet
Toluca W (draw no bet)
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
León W +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
First team to score
Toluca W to score first✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.72
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca W / FT Toluca W✗
26%
3.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.47
–
Recent results
León W – last 5
LWLLL
28 Mar
@ Pumas UNAM W
1–2
L
24 Mar
vs Atlas W
4–0
W
17 Mar
vs Mazatlán W
1–3
L
14 Mar
@ América W
2–4
L
22 Feb
@ Tijuana W
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Toluca W – last 6
WWLWWD
28 Mar
@ Mazatlán W
3–2
W
21 Mar
vs Necaxa W
5–1
W
17 Mar
@ América W
0–2
L
13 Mar
vs Pumas UNAM W
4–2
W
21 Feb
@ Santos Laguna W
1–0
W
17 Feb
vs Pachuca W
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between León W and Toluca W.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win León W vs Toluca W?
On our numbers León W have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toluca W 48%.
How many goals will there be in León W vs Toluca W?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for León W vs Toluca W?
Our predicted score is León W 1–1 Toluca W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is León W vs Toluca W?
León W vs Toluca W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
