Lexington vs Monterey Bay: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 9 May the USL Championship brings Lexington against Monterey Bay at Toyota Stadium. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Lexington are 4th, among the top four, on 48 points after 30 matches; Monterey Bay are 12th (in the drop zone) with 24. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lexington, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Las Vegas Lights, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Monterey Bay, last 5: LLDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to FC Tulsa, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lexington 2.0 xG, Monterey Bay 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington 62%, draw 21%, Monterey Bay 16%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington 2–0 Monterey Bay. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lexington62%fair 1.60 · @1.55
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.70
Monterey Bay16%fair 6.17 · @5.40
2.91Expected goals
2.01Lexington xG
0.90Monterey Bay xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lexington 2.0 – 0.9 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lexington
Monterey Bay
Attack vs USL Championship average
+45%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
+13%
Our expected goals here
2.45
1.06
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✓
62%
1.60
1.55
Double chance
Lexington or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.80
Draw no bet
Lexington (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Lexington -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Lexington to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Lexington ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✓
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.10
–
Recent results
Lexington – last 6
LWDLLL
3 May
@ Las Vegas Lights
1–2
L
26 Apr
vs Forward Madison
4–2
W
19 Apr
@ Orange County SC
0–0
D
12 Apr
vs Rhode Island
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Louisville City
0–2
L
29 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 6
LLDLDL
4 May
vs FC Tulsa
1–2
L
12 Apr
@ Indy Eleven
1–3
L
5 Apr
vs San Antonio
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Las Vegas Lights
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and Monterey Bay.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Lexington have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Monterey Bay 16%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Lexington 2–0 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Lexington vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
