Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 3.00 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLoudoun United to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.99
Loudoun United vs New Mexico United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 22 August the USL Championship brings Loudoun United against New Mexico United at Segra Field. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Loudoun United are 10th, in the drop zone, on 31 points after 30 matches; New Mexico United are 1st (leading the league) with 52. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Loudoun United, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Detroit City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
New Mexico United, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FC Tulsa, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours New Mexico United, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.3 for Loudoun United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Loudoun United 1.4 xG, New Mexico United 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Loudoun United 40%, draw 21%, New Mexico United 39%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: New Mexico United to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Loudoun United 1–1 New Mexico United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Loudoun United40%fair 2.53 · @2.15
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.40
New Mexico United39%fair 2.56 · @3.00
2.75Expected goals
1.38Loudoun United xG
1.37New Mexico United xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–06%
From our goals model: Loudoun United 1.4 – 1.4 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Loudoun United to win✗
40%
2.53
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.57
Draw no bet
Loudoun United (draw no bet)
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
New Mexico United +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.17
First team to score
Loudoun United to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Loudoun United / FT Loudoun United✗
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.99
–
Recent results
Loudoun United – last 6
DLWWDL
16 Aug
@ Detroit City
0–0
D
9 Aug
vs Charleston Battery
0–1
L
2 Aug
vs Hartford Athletic
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Indy Eleven
1–0
W
19 Jul
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
1–1
D
12 Jul
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 6
WWWWWW
16 Aug
vs FC Tulsa
1–0
W
9 Aug
@ Monterey Bay
5–2
W
2 Aug
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
16 Jul
@ Lexington
4–1
W
12 Jul
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
5 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Loudoun United and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Loudoun United have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and New Mexico United 39%.
How many goals will there be in Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Loudoun United 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
Loudoun United vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Segra Field.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
