Sporting JAX 15%Draw 18%Louisville City 67%Expected goals 1.10 – 2.44
63%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultLouisville City to win ✓67% · @1.36
Double chanceLouisville City or draw ✓85% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · fair 1.46
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Louisville City travel to face Sporting JAX on Thursday 22 October in the USL Championship, with Hodges Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 00:30 WAT. In the table, Sporting JAX are 13th, in the drop zone, on 14 points after 30 matches; Louisville City are 4th (among the top four) with 47. There are 33 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sporting JAX, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Birmingham Legion, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Louisville City, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Indy Eleven, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Louisville City, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Sporting JAX.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sporting JAX 1.1 xG, Louisville City 2.4 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sporting JAX 15%, draw 18%, Louisville City 67%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sporting JAX 1–2 Louisville City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sporting JAX15%fair 6.67 · @6.00
Draw18%fair 5.43 · @4.75
Louisville City67%fair 1.50 · @1.36
3.54Expected goals
1.10Sporting JAX xG
2.44Louisville City xG
63%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
0–29%
1–18%
1–38%
0–17%
0–37%
From our goals model: Sporting JAX 1.1 – 2.4 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✓
67%
1.50
1.36
Double chance
Louisville City or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.65
Draw no bet
Louisville City (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Louisville City -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
First team to score
Louisville City to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Louisville City ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✗
44%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
Sporting JAX – last 6
LLLLLW
15 Oct
vs Birmingham Legion
0–1
L
1 Oct
@ Miami FC
1–4
L
26 Sep
vs Loudoun United
1–4
L
16 Sep
@ Hartford Athletic
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Rhode Island
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Lexington
3–2
W
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Louisville City – last 6
WWWDWL
18 Oct
vs Indy Eleven
4–1
W
10 Oct
@ Charleston Battery
2–0
W
4 Oct
@ Hartford Athletic
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Hartford Athletic
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Loudoun United
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting JAX and Louisville City.
What is the prediction for Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Sporting JAX have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Louisville City 67%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Sporting JAX 1–2 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Hodges Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
