Sarasota Paradise v Naples Prediction & Expected Goals (21 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSarasota Paradise to win ✗59% · @1.75

Double chanceSarasota Paradise or draw ✗81% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09

Sarasota Paradise vs Naples: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

23:30 WAT, Wednesday 21 October: Sarasota Paradise v Naples in the USL League One, played at Premier Sports Campus. In the table, Sarasota Paradise are 11th, lower half, on 40 points after 32 matches; Naples are 8th (upper half) with 46.

Current form

Sarasota Paradise, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Fort Wayne, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.2 goals per game.

Naples, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Corpus Christi, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (7 Jun 2026) it ended Naples 0–2 Sarasota Paradise. The last 2 head-to-heads: Sarasota Paradise 1 win, Naples 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.0 goals.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sarasota Paradise 1.9 xG, Naples 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Sarasota Paradise 59%, draw 22%, Naples 19%.
Lower-risk option: Sarasota Paradise or draw (81%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.62.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Sarasota Paradise or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sarasota Paradise 1–0 Naples. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sarasota Paradise59%fair 1.68 · @1.75

Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.30

Naples19%fair 5.36 · @3.80

2.83Expected goals

1.88Sarasota Paradise xG

0.95Naples xG

57%Both score

54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–011%

1–111%

2–010%

2–110%

3–07%

3–16%

From our goals model: Sarasota Paradise 1.9 – 0.9 Naples expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sarasota Paradise to win ✗	59%	1.68	1.75
Double chance	Sarasota Paradise or draw ✗	81%	1.23	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	57%	1.76	1.62
Draw no bet	Sarasota Paradise (draw no bet) ✗	76%	1.31	–
Asian handicap	Naples +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	65%	1.54	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	77%	1.29	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	54%	1.86	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	69%	1.46	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	84%	1.19	–
First team to score	Sarasota Paradise to score first	63%	1.60	–
Half-time result	Sarasota Paradise ahead at half-time ✗	43%	2.33	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sarasota Paradise / FT Sarasota Paradise ✗	37%	2.68	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.09	–

Sarasota Paradise – last 6

WWLWWD

18 Oct	@ Fort Wayne	3–1	W
11 Oct	vs Richmond Kickers	3–2	W
4 Oct	vs Charlotte Independence	2–3	L
26 Sep	@ Portland Hearts of Pine	4–1	W
20 Sep	vs Greenville Triumph	6–0	W
12 Sep	@ Forward Madison	1–1	D

3.2Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Naples – last 6

WWWWDD

11 Oct	@ Corpus Christi	1–0	W
8 Oct	vs Richmond Kickers	2–0	W
4 Oct	vs NY Cosmos	2–1	W
27 Sep	vs Chattanooga Red Wolves	1–0	W
20 Sep	@ Fort Wayne	2–2	D
12 Sep	@ One Knoxville	0–0	D

1.3Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

USL League One table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	32	20	6	6	+28	66
2	Union Omaha	32	19	5	8	+20	62
3	Boise	32	17	7	8	+10	58
4	Forward Madison	32	16	8	8	+24	56
5	Spokane Velocity	32	16	6	10	+6	54
6	One Knoxville	32	15	9	8	+16	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	32	14	5	13	+6	47
8	Naples	32	14	4	14	-7	46
9	Fort Wayne	32	12	9	11	+5	45
10	Westchester SC	32	11	7	14	+4	40
11	Sarasota Paradise	32	11	7	14	-2	40
12	Corpus Christi	32	9	10	13	-15	37
13	Alta	32	8	10	14	-8	34
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	32	8	10	14	-10	34
15	Greenville Triumph	32	8	6	18	-23	30
16	NY Cosmos	32	7	6	19	-26	27
17	Richmond Kickers	32	7	5	20	-28	26

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

Our pick is Sarasota Paradise or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

On our numbers Sarasota Paradise have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Naples 19%.

How many goals will there be in Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

Our predicted score is Sarasota Paradise 1–0 Naples, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

Sarasota Paradise vs Naples (USL League One) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Premier Sports Campus.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Sarasota Paradise v Naples: numbers & prediction