Value bet: Irapuato to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIrapuato to win ✗38% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.78
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.27
Tepatitlán vs Irapuato: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Saturday 21 February: Tepatitlán v Irapuato in the Liga De Expansión MX.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tepatitlán 1.3 xG, Irapuato 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tepatitlán 37%, draw 25%, Irapuato 38%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.78.
Price worth noting: Irapuato to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.32). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tepatitlán 1–1 Irapuato. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tepatitlán37%fair 2.67 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.10
Irapuato38%fair 2.64 · @3.00
2.80Expected goals
1.31Tepatitlán xG
1.50Irapuato xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Tepatitlán 1.3 – 1.5 Irapuato expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tepatitlán
Irapuato
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-30%
+6%
Goals conceded vs average
+47%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.36
1.90
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Irapuato to win✗
38%
2.64
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.32
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.78 ▲
Draw no bet
Irapuato (draw no bet)✗
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Tepatitlán +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.27
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Irapuato to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Irapuato / FT Irapuato✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.27
–
Recent results
Tepatitlán – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Leones Negros UDG
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Irapuato – last 1
W
14 Feb
vs Dorados
5–0
W
5.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tepatitlán and Irapuato.
What is the prediction for Tepatitlán vs Irapuato?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Tepatitlán vs Irapuato?
On our numbers Tepatitlán have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Irapuato 38%.
How many goals will there be in Tepatitlán vs Irapuato?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tepatitlán vs Irapuato?
Our predicted score is Tepatitlán 1–1 Irapuato, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tepatitlán vs Irapuato?
Tepatitlán vs Irapuato (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
