CA La Paz 48%Draw 23%Leones Negros UDG 30%Expected goals 1.87 – 1.30
80%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: CA La Paz to win @ 2.28 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCA La Paz to win ✓48% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.47
CA La Paz vs Leones Negros UDG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leones Negros UDG travel to face CA La Paz on Thursday 5 March in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Guaycura the venue – the ball rolls at 04:00 WAT. In the table, CA La Paz are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 15 matches; Leones Negros UDG are 2nd (among the top four) with 30. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CA La Paz 1.9 xG, Leones Negros UDG 1.3 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CA La Paz 48%, draw 23%, Leones Negros UDG 30%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: CA La Paz to win @2.28 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: CA La Paz 1–1 Leones Negros UDG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CA La Paz48%fair 2.09 · @2.28
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.65
Leones Negros UDG30%fair 3.39 · @2.80
3.17Expected goals
1.87CA La Paz xG
1.30Leones Negros UDG xG
63%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–08%
2–07%
1–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: CA La Paz 1.9 – 1.3 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
CA La Paz
Leones Negros UDG
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+32%
+21%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-14%
Our expected goals here
2.11
1.27
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CA La Paz to win✓
48%
2.09
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.50
Draw no bet
CA La Paz (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Leones Negros UDG +1 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
First team to score
CA La Paz to score first✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
CA La Paz ahead at half-time✗
39%
2.59
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CA La Paz / FT CA La Paz✗
31%
3.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.47
–
Recent results
CA La Paz – last 1
L
1 Mar
@ Monarcas
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Leones Negros UDG – last 2
DD
1 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CA La Paz and Leones Negros UDG.
What is the prediction for CA La Paz vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win CA La Paz vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers CA La Paz have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones Negros UDG 30%.
How many goals will there be in CA La Paz vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CA La Paz vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is CA La Paz 1–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is CA La Paz vs Leones Negros UDG?
CA La Paz vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guaycura.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
