Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Saturday 14 March: Alebrijes de Oaxaca v Tapatío in the Liga De Expansión MX. In the table, Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th, lower half, on 22 points after 15 matches; Tapatío are 11th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 4: LWLD Their latest outing: 2–6 defeat to Irapuato, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.5 xG, Tapatío 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 50% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alebrijes de Oaxaca 39%, draw 25%, Tapatío 36%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Tapatío. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alebrijes de Oaxaca39%fair 2.54 · @2.52
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.30
Tapatío36%fair 2.80 · @2.70
2.91Expected goals
1.54Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
1.37Tapatío xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.5 – 1.4 Tapatío expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Tapatío
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-23%
+4%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
+20%
Our expected goals here
1.72
1.40
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win✓
39%
2.54
2.52
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.80
Draw no bet
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Tapatío +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.17
1.08
First team to score
Alebrijes de Oaxaca to score first
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alebrijes de Oaxaca / FT Alebrijes de Oaxaca✓
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.30
–
Recent results
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 4
LWLD
8 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–6
L
28 Feb
vs Dorados
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Atlante FC
0–1
L
14 Feb
vs Tlaxcala
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tapatío – last 2
LD
7 Mar
vs Cancún
1–2
L
28 Feb
@ Correcaminos Uat
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tapatío.
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tapatío 36%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Our predicted score is Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Tapatío, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irapuato1