Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultTapatío to win ✓42% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.27
Tapatío vs Monarcas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 23 March the Liga De Expansión MX brings Tapatío against Monarcas at Estadio Akron. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Tapatío are 11th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Monarcas are 3rd (among the top four) with 26.
Current form
Tapatío, last 3: LLD Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Alebrijes de Oaxaca, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Monarcas, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Tepatitlán, at home. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Monarcas, collecting 2.4 points per game to 0.3 for Tapatío.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tapatío 1.6 xG, Monarcas 1.4 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tapatío 42%, draw 24%, Monarcas 34%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tapatío 1–1 Monarcas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tapatío42%fair 2.38 · @2.32
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.50
Monarcas34%fair 2.96 · @2.84
2.97Expected goals
1.58Tapatío xG
1.40Monarcas xG
63%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: Tapatío 1.6 – 1.4 Monarcas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tapatío
Monarcas
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+4%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
-15%
Our expected goals here
1.64
1.46
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tapatío to win✓
42%
2.38
2.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.55
Draw no bet
Tapatío (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Monarcas +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.15
First team to score
Tapatío to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tapatío / FT Tapatío✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.27
–
Recent results
Tapatío – last 3
LLD
14 Mar
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3–4
L
7 Mar
vs Cancún
1–2
L
28 Feb
@ Correcaminos Uat
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Monarcas – last 5
WLWWW
15 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
3–2
W
8 Mar
@ Atlante FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Dorados
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
1.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tapatío and Monarcas.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tapatío vs Monarcas?
On our numbers Tapatío have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Monarcas 34%.
How many goals will there be in Tapatío vs Monarcas?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tapatío vs Monarcas?
Our predicted score is Tapatío 1–1 Monarcas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Tapatío vs Monarcas?
Tapatío vs Monarcas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
