Value bet: Leones Negros UDG to win @ 2.44 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLeones Negros UDG to win ✓45% · @2.44
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monarcas travel to face Leones Negros UDG on Sunday 5 April in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Jalisco the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Leones Negros UDG are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 15 matches; Monarcas are 3rd (among the top four) with 26.
Current form
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: DDLDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Alebrijes de Oaxaca, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Monarcas, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Irapuato, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Monarcas, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Leones Negros UDG.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones Negros UDG 1.6 xG, Monarcas 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones Negros UDG 45%, draw 24%, Monarcas 31%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Leones Negros UDG to win @2.44 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Monarcas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones Negros UDG45%fair 2.20 · @2.44
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.40
Monarcas31%fair 3.27 · @2.72
2.77Expected goals
1.65Leones Negros UDG xG
1.13Monarcas xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–110%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.6 – 1.1 Monarcas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Leones Negros UDG
Monarcas
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+21%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-15%
Our expected goals here
1.91
1.05
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones Negros UDG to win✓
45%
2.20
2.44 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
1.67
Draw no bet
Leones Negros UDG (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Monarcas +1 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.11
First team to score
Leones Negros UDG to score first✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG✓
30%
3.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.49
–
Recent results
Leones Negros UDG – last 5
DDLDD
28 Mar
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Dorados
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Monarcas – last 6
WLWLWW
29 Mar
vs Irapuato
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ Tapatío
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
3–2
W
8 Mar
@ Atlante FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Dorados
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Monarcas 31%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Monarcas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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