VPS travel to face Mariehamn on Saturday 2 May in the Veikkausliiga – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Mariehamn are 6th on 19 points after 27 matches; VPS are 6th with 40. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Mariehamn, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over HPS, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
VPS, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 9–1 win over Leki, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 4.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mariehamn 1.1 xG, VPS 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mariehamn 32%, draw 26%, VPS 42%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mariehamn 1–1 VPS. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mariehamn32%fair 3.11 · @2.92
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.20
VPS42%fair 2.39 · @2.30
2.46Expected goals
1.14Mariehamn xG
1.32VPS xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Mariehamn 1.1 – 1.3 VPS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VPS to win
42%
2.39
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.74
1.70
Draw no bet
VPS (draw no bet)
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Mariehamn +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.85
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.12
–
First team to score
VPS to score first
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VPS / FT VPS
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
11.80
–
Recent results
Mariehamn – last 3
WLW
28 Apr
@ HPS
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ SJK
0–3
L
5 Mar
vs Lahti
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
VPS – last 6
WWWDDL
29 Apr
@ Leki
9–1
W
24 Apr
vs Ilves
3–2
W
14 Apr
@ SalPa II
11–0
W
10 Apr
vs FF Jaro
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ Inter Turku
0–0
D
20 Mar
vs GIF Sundsvall
1–2
L
4.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mariehamn and VPS.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mariehamn vs VPS?
On our numbers Mariehamn have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and VPS 42%.
How many goals will there be in Mariehamn vs VPS?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our predicted score is Mariehamn 1–1 VPS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn vs VPS (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
