Mariehamn vs Gnistan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 13 June the Veikkausliiga brings Mariehamn against Gnistan at Wiklof Holding Arena. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Mariehamn are 6th on 19 points after 27 matches; Gnistan are 5th with 46. There are 27 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Mariehamn, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to HJK Helsinki, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Gnistan, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over SJK, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Gnistan, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Mariehamn.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mariehamn 1.1 xG, Gnistan 1.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mariehamn 24%, draw 25%, Gnistan 51%.
Lower-risk option: Gnistan or draw (76%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Gnistan or draw (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mariehamn 1–1 Gnistan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mariehamn24%fair 4.14 · @3.60
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.35
Gnistan51%fair 1.96 · @1.94
2.82Expected goals
1.12Mariehamn xG
1.69Gnistan xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Mariehamn 1.1 – 1.7 Gnistan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gnistan to win✓
51%
1.96
1.94
Double chance
Gnistan or draw✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Draw no bet
Gnistan (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Mariehamn +1 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Gnistan to score first✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gnistan / FT Gnistan✓
31%
3.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Mariehamn – last 6
LLLWDW
30 May
@ HJK Helsinki
0–1
L
26 May
vs Lahti
0–1
L
23 May
@ FF Jaro
0–3
L
13 May
vs PuiU Helsinki
3–0
W
10 May
@ Lahti
1–1
D
28 Apr
@ HPS
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gnistan – last 6
WLWDWD
30 May
vs SJK
3–2
W
23 May
@ Ilves
0–2
L
5 May
vs Inter Turku
2–0
W
24 Apr
@ Turku PS
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ POHU
2–0
W
28 Mar
@ Kooteepee
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mariehamn and Gnistan.
Our pick is Gnistan or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
On our numbers Mariehamn have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gnistan 51%.
How many goals will there be in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our predicted score is Mariehamn 1–1 Gnistan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Wiklof Holding Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
