VPS welcome Mariehamn to Lemonsoft Stadion for a Veikkausliiga fixture on Saturday 4 July (16:00 WAT). In the table, VPS are 6th on 40 points after 32 matches; Mariehamn are 6th with 19. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
VPS, last 5: LDWWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Inter Turku, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Mariehamn, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Inter Turku, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours VPS, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.0 for Mariehamn.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give VPS 1.8 xG, Mariehamn 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – VPS 64%, draw 21%, Mariehamn 15%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: VPS 2–0 Mariehamn. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
VPS64%fair 1.56 · @1.27
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @4.75
Mariehamn15%fair 6.68 · @10.75
2.71Expected goals
1.82VPS xG
0.89Mariehamn xG
55%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: VPS 1.8 – 0.9 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VPS to win✓
64%
1.56
1.27
Double chance
VPS or draw✓
85%
1.18
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
VPS (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Mariehamn +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
VPS to score first✓
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
VPS ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VPS / FT VPS✓
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.20
–
Recent results
VPS – last 6
LDWWDD
30 Jun
vs Inter Turku
2–3
L
27 Jun
@ Gnistan
1–1
D
23 Jun
vs AC Oulu
5–1
W
17 Jun
@ SJK
2–1
W
13 Jun
vs KuPS
1–1
D
10 Jun
@ KuPS
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mariehamn – last 6
LLLLLL
27 Jun
vs Inter Turku
0–2
L
23 Jun
vs HJK Helsinki
0–4
L
18 Jun
@ AC Oulu
1–2
L
13 Jun
vs Gnistan
0–3
L
30 May
@ HJK Helsinki
0–1
L
26 May
vs Lahti
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between VPS and Mariehamn.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win VPS vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers VPS have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mariehamn 15%.
How many goals will there be in VPS vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is VPS 2–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is VPS vs Mariehamn?
VPS vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Lemonsoft Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
