Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.30Odds
Picks by market
ResultGnistan to win ✓67% · @1.30
Double chanceGnistan or draw ✓87% · fair 1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗8% · fair 12.86
Gnistan vs Mariehamn: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mariehamn travel to face Gnistan on Saturday 11 July in the Veikkausliiga, with Markku.fi Areena the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Gnistan are 5th on 46 points after 32 matches; Mariehamn are 6th with 19. There are 27 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Gnistan, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lahti, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Mariehamn, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to VPS, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Gnistan, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.0 for Mariehamn.
Head to head
When they last met (13 Jun 2026) it ended Mariehamn 0–3 Gnistan.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gnistan 2.1 xG, Mariehamn 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 49% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gnistan 67%, draw 21%, Mariehamn 13%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Gnistan to win (67%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gnistan 2–0 Mariehamn. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gnistan67%fair 1.50 · @1.30
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @4.65
Mariehamn13%fair 7.80 · @9.40
2.97Expected goals
2.09Gnistan xG
0.88Mariehamn xG
49%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Gnistan 2.1 – 0.9 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Gnistan to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers Gnistan have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mariehamn 13%.
How many goals will there be in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is Gnistan 2–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Markku.fi Areena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
