KuPS vs Mariehamn: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mariehamn travel to face KuPS on Sunday 23 August in the Veikkausliiga, with Vare Areena the venue – the ball rolls at 13:00 WAT. In the table, KuPS are 3rd on 53 points after 32 matches; Mariehamn are 6th with 19. There are 34 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
KuPS, last 5: DWLDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Shamrock Rovers, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Mariehamn, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over SJK, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours KuPS, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Mariehamn.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give KuPS 2.1 xG, Mariehamn 0.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – KuPS 75%, draw 16%, Mariehamn 9%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was KuPS to win (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: KuPS 2–0 Mariehamn. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
KuPS75%fair 1.33 · @1.22
Draw16%fair 6.08 · @5.80
Mariehamn9%fair 11.74 · @10.00
2.65Expected goals
2.12KuPS xG
0.53Mariehamn xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–016%
1–015%
3–011%
2–18%
1–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: KuPS 2.1 – 0.5 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
KuPS to win✗
75%
1.33
1.22
Double chance
KuPS or draw✗
91%
1.09
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Draw no bet
KuPS (draw no bet)✗
90%
1.11
–
Asian handicap
KuPS -1 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
KuPS to score first
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
KuPS ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT KuPS / FT KuPS✗
49%
2.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.88
–
Recent results
KuPS – last 6
DWLDDW
20 Aug
@ Shamrock Rovers
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Lahti
2–1
W
13 Aug
@ Universitatea Craiova
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Turku PS
1–1
D
6 Aug
vs Universitatea Craiova
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Gnistan
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mariehamn – last 6
WLLDLL
15 Aug
vs SJK
2–0
W
9 Aug
@ Ilves
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Turku PS
0–3
L
25 Jul
vs AC Oulu
1–1
D
20 Jul
vs Lahti
0–2
L
11 Jul
@ Gnistan
2–4
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between KuPS and Mariehamn.
Our pick is KuPS to win with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers KuPS have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Mariehamn 9%.
How many goals will there be in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is KuPS 2–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is KuPS vs Mariehamn?
KuPS vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Vare Areena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
