Value bet: Atletico DE Rafaela to win @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico DE Rafaela to win ✗51% · @2.10
Double chanceAtletico DE Rafaela or draw ✗81% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.42
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.63
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Club Atlético Güemes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Club Atlético Güemes travel to face Atletico DE Rafaela on Monday 6 April in the Primera Nacional, with Estadio Nuevo Monumental the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th, lower half, on 47 points after 36 matches; Club Atlético Güemes are 18th (in the drop zone) with 27. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico DE Rafaela, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Defensores De Belgrano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Club Atlético Güemes, last 3: DLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Atletico Mitre, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Atletico DE Rafaela, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.3 for Club Atlético Güemes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico DE Rafaela 1.4 xG, Club Atlético Güemes 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico DE Rafaela 51%, draw 30%, Club Atlético Güemes 19%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.42.
Price worth noting: Atletico DE Rafaela to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Club Atlético Güemes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico DE Rafaela51%fair 1.95 · @2.10
Draw30%fair 3.33 · @2.40
Club Atlético Güemes19%fair 5.33 · @4.75
2.07Expected goals
1.41Atletico DE Rafaela xG
0.66Club Atlético Güemes xG
48%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–013%
2–013%
1–112%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Atletico DE Rafaela 1.4 – 0.7 Club Atlético Güemes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico DE Rafaela
Club Atlético Güemes
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
-11%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
+13%
+58%
Our expected goals here
1.73
0.68
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico DE Rafaela to win✗
51%
1.95
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Atletico DE Rafaela or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.42
Draw no bet
Atletico DE Rafaela (draw no bet)✗
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Club Atlético Güemes +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.77
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Atletico DE Rafaela to score first✗
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico DE Rafaela / FT Atletico DE Rafaela✗
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.63
–
Recent results
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
DLWWLD
30 Mar
@ Defensores De Belgrano
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ Belgrano Cordoba
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Temperley
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Deportivo Maipu
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Almagro
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Club Atlético Güemes – last 3
DLL
29 Mar
vs Atletico Mitre
2–2
D
22 Feb
@ San Martin S.J.
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Nueva Chicago
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico DE Rafaela and Club Atlético Güemes.
What is the prediction for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Club Atlético Güemes?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs Club Atlético Güemes?
On our numbers Atletico DE Rafaela have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Club Atlético Güemes 19%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico DE Rafaela vs Club Atlético Güemes?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Club Atlético Güemes?
Our predicted score is Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Club Atlético Güemes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Atletico DE Rafaela vs Club Atlético Güemes?
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Club Atlético Güemes (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
