Value bet: Tristan Suarez to win @ 2.15 – our chance 49% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTristan Suarez to win ✗49% · @2.15
Double chanceTristan Suarez or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.40
Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico DE Rafaela travel to face Tristan Suarez on Tuesday 14 April in the Primera Nacional, with Estadio 20 de Octubre the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Tristan Suarez are 1st, leading the league, on 64 points after 36 matches; Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th (lower half) with 47. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tristan Suarez, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sarmiento Junin, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Atletico DE Rafaela, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Club Atlético Güemes, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Tristan Suarez, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Atletico DE Rafaela.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tristan Suarez 1.2 xG, Atletico DE Rafaela 0.5 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tristan Suarez 49%, draw 31%, Atletico DE Rafaela 20%.
Lower-risk option: Tristan Suarez or draw (80%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Tristan Suarez to win @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tristan Suarez 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tristan Suarez49%fair 2.02 · @2.15
Draw31%fair 3.22 · @2.60
Atletico DE Rafaela20%fair 5.12 · @4.00
1.67Expected goals
1.21Tristan Suarez xG
0.46Atletico DE Rafaela xG
44%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–023%
0–019%
2–014%
1–111%
0–19%
2–16%
From our goals model: Tristan Suarez 1.2 – 0.5 Atletico DE Rafaela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tristan Suarez
Atletico DE Rafaela
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
-10%
-11%
Goals conceded vs average
-59%
+13%
Our expected goals here
1.25
0.29
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tristan Suarez to win✗
49%
2.02
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Tristan Suarez or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.50
Draw no bet
Tristan Suarez (draw no bet)
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Atletico DE Rafaela +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Tristan Suarez to score first✗
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tristan Suarez / FT Tristan Suarez✗
32%
3.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
23%
4.40
–
Recent results
Tristan Suarez – last 3
LWW
9 Apr
@ Sarmiento Junin
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–0
W
2 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
LDLWWL
6 Apr
vs Club Atlético Güemes
1–2
L
30 Mar
@ Defensores De Belgrano
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ Belgrano Cordoba
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Temperley
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Deportivo Maipu
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tristan Suarez and Atletico DE Rafaela.
What is the prediction for Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
On our numbers Tristan Suarez have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Atletico DE Rafaela 20%.
How many goals will there be in Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our predicted score is Tristan Suarez 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 20 de Octubre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
