Value bet: Deportivo Moron to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlmirante Brown to win ✓38% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.26
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Almirante Brown welcome Deportivo Moron to Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento for a Primera Nacional fixture on Sunday 25 October (19:30 WAT). In the table, Almirante Brown are 6th, upper half, on 51 points after 36 matches; Deportivo Moron are 3rd (among the top four) with 61.
Current form
Almirante Brown, last 5: DDLLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Colon Santa Fe, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Deportivo Moron, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Atletico Mitre, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Moron, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Almirante Brown.
Head to head
When they last met (7 Jun 2026) it ended Deportivo Moron 1–0 Almirante Brown.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Almirante Brown 1.1 xG, Deportivo Moron 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Almirante Brown 38%, draw 28%, Deportivo Moron 34%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Deportivo Moron to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (53%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Almirante Brown 1–0 Deportivo Moron. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Almirante Brown38%fair 2.62 · @2.50
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @2.50
Deportivo Moron34%fair 2.93 · @3.20
2.04Expected goals
1.06Almirante Brown xG
0.98Deportivo Moron xG
47%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–114%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Almirante Brown 1.1 – 1.0 Deportivo Moron expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
On our numbers Almirante Brown have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Deportivo Moron 34%.
How many goals will there be in Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
Our predicted score is Almirante Brown 1–0 Deportivo Moron, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron?
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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