Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultXelajú to win ✓69% · @1.36
Double chanceXelajú or draw ✓90% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.46
Xelajú vs Marquense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 16 February the Liga Nacional brings Xelajú against Marquense at Estadio Mario Camposeco. Kick-off: 03:00 WAT. In the table, Xelajú are 1st, leading the league, on 39 points after 22 matches; Marquense are 8th (lower half) with 30.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Xelajú 1.9 xG, Marquense 0.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Xelajú 69%, draw 22%, Marquense 10%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Xelajú 1–0 Marquense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Xelajú69%fair 1.46 · @1.36
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @4.00
Marquense10%fair 10.23 · @8.00
2.48Expected goals
1.91Xelajú xG
0.57Marquense xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–015%
3–010%
1–19%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Xelajú 1.9 – 0.6 Marquense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Xelajú
Marquense
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
+22%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
-5%
Our expected goals here
1.93
0.57
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Xelajú to win✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Double chance
Xelajú or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Xelajú (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.14
–
Asian handicap
Xelajú -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Xelajú to score first✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Xelajú ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Xelajú / FT Xelajú✓
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.46
–
Recent results
Xelajú
No recent results on record.
Marquense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xelajú and Marquense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Xelajú vs Marquense?
On our numbers Xelajú have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Marquense 10%.
How many goals will there be in Xelajú vs Marquense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xelajú vs Marquense?
Our predicted score is Xelajú 1–0 Marquense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Xelajú vs Marquense?
Xelajú vs Marquense (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mario Camposeco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
