Malacateco vs Aurora: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Malacateco welcome Aurora for a Liga Nacional fixture on Monday 23 March (03:00 WAT). In the table, Malacateco are 10th, in the drop zone, on 22 points after 22 matches; Aurora are 11th (in the drop zone) with 20. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Malacateco, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Mictlán, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Aurora, last 5: LLLDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Guastatoya, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Malacateco 1.5 xG, Aurora 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Malacateco 55%, draw 25%, Aurora 19%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Malacateco 1–0 Aurora. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Malacateco55%fair 1.81 · @1.53
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.75
Aurora19%fair 5.15 · @5.60
2.45Expected goals
1.53Malacateco xG
0.92Aurora xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Malacateco 1.5 – 0.9 Aurora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Malacateco
Aurora
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
-25%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.33
0.98
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malacateco to win✗
55%
1.81
1.53
Double chance
Malacateco or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.95
Draw no bet
Malacateco (draw no bet)
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Aurora +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Malacateco to score first✗
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malacateco / FT Malacateco✗
31%
3.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.75
–
Recent results
Malacateco – last 6
LLLLDL
19 Mar
@ Mictlán
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Mixco
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Marquense
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Comunicaciones
2–3
L
1 Mar
vs Antigua GFC
2–2
D
24 Feb
@ Cobán Imperial
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Aurora – last 6
LLLDDD
19 Mar
vs Guastatoya
0–1
L
16 Mar
@ Municipal
1–4
L
11 Mar
@ Mictlán
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Xelajú
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Mixco
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Marquense
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malacateco and Aurora.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Malacateco vs Aurora?
On our numbers Malacateco have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aurora 19%.
How many goals will there be in Malacateco vs Aurora?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malacateco vs Aurora?
Our predicted score is Malacateco 1–0 Aurora, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Malacateco vs Aurora?
Malacateco vs Aurora (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
