Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Excursionistas to win @ 3.20 – our chance 40% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultExcursionistas to win ✓40% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.43
Deportivo Merlo vs Excursionistas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Excursionistas travel to face Deportivo Merlo on Monday 16 February in the Primera B Metropolitana, with Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Merlo are 15th, lower half, on 49 points after 42 matches; Excursionistas are 1st (leading the league) with 81. There are 32 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Merlo 1.0 xG, Excursionistas 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 36%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Merlo 32%, draw 28%, Excursionistas 40%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Excursionistas to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (62%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Merlo 1–1 Excursionistas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Merlo32%fair 3.11 · @2.40
Draw28%fair 3.54 · @2.75
Excursionistas40%fair 2.52 · @3.20
2.28Expected goals
0.96Deportivo Merlo xG
1.32Excursionistas xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Deportivo Merlo 1.0 – 1.3 Excursionistas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Merlo
Excursionistas
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
-17%
+67%
Goals conceded vs average
+12%
-9%
Our expected goals here
0.88
1.60
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excursionistas to win✓
40%
2.52
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.55
Draw no bet
Excursionistas (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Merlo +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Excursionistas to score first
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excursionistas / FT Excursionistas✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.43
–
Recent results
Deportivo Merlo
No recent results on record.
Excursionistas
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Merlo and Excursionistas.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Deportivo Merlo vs Excursionistas?
On our numbers Deportivo Merlo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Excursionistas 40%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Merlo vs Excursionistas?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Merlo 1–1 Excursionistas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Deportivo Merlo vs Excursionistas (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
