Argentino de Merlo 32%Draw 27%Excursionistas 41%Expected goals 0.96 – 1.25
62%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultExcursionistas to win ✗41% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.19
Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Argentino de Merlo welcome Excursionistas to Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva for a Primera B Metropolitana fixture on Tuesday 14 April (19:30 WAT). In the table, Argentino de Merlo are 13th, lower half, on 50 points after 42 matches; Excursionistas are 1st (leading the league) with 81. There are 31 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Argentino de Merlo, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Arsenal Sarandi, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Excursionistas, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Talleres Remedios, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Excursionistas, collecting 2.6 points per game to 1.5 for Argentino de Merlo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Argentino de Merlo 1.0 xG, Excursionistas 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 36%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Argentino de Merlo 32%, draw 27%, Excursionistas 41%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (62%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Argentino de Merlo 1–1 Excursionistas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Argentino de Merlo32%fair 3.09 · @2.65
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @2.88
Excursionistas41%fair 2.46 · @2.65
2.20Expected goals
0.96Argentino de Merlo xG
1.25Excursionistas xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Argentino de Merlo 1.0 – 1.2 Excursionistas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Argentino de Merlo
Excursionistas
Attack vs Primera B Metropolitana average
+2%
+67%
Goals conceded vs average
+16%
-9%
Our expected goals here
1.08
1.66
Our own ratings from every Primera B Metropolitana result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excursionistas to win✗
41%
2.46
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Excursionistas (draw no bet)
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Argentino de Merlo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Excursionistas to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excursionistas / FT Excursionistas✗
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.19
–
Recent results
Argentino de Merlo – last 6
LWLWWL
10 Apr
@ Arsenal Sarandi
0–3
L
3 Apr
@ Ituzaingó
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Talleres Remedios
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs Flandria
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Argentino Quilmes
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Comunicaciones
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Excursionistas – last 5
DWWWW
11 Apr
vs Talleres Remedios
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Brown DE Adrogue
1–0
W
5 Mar
vs Defensores Unidos
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Dock Sud
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Merlo
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Argentino de Merlo and Excursionistas.
What is the prediction for Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
On our numbers Argentino de Merlo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Excursionistas 41%.
How many goals will there be in Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Our predicted score is Argentino de Merlo 1–1 Excursionistas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
