Deportivo Merlo v Defensores Unidos Prediction & Expected Goals (5 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultDeportivo Merlo to win ✗39% · @2.20

Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.40

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.03

Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Defensores Unidos travel to face Deportivo Merlo on Saturday 5 September in the Primera B Metropolitana, with Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Merlo are 15th, lower half, on 49 points after 42 matches; Defensores Unidos are 19th (lower half) with 46. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Deportivo Merlo, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Comunicaciones, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Defensores Unidos, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Deportivo Camioneros, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Defensores Unidos, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.5 for Deportivo Merlo.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Merlo 1.1 xG, Defensores Unidos 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Merlo 39%, draw 26%, Defensores Unidos 35%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Defensores Unidos to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 35%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 2.10 – longer than our fair 1.97, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Merlo 1–1 Defensores Unidos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Deportivo Merlo39%fair 2.55 · @2.20

Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.75

Defensores Unidos35%fair 2.86 · @3.40

2.21Expected goals

1.15Deportivo Merlo xG

1.06Defensores Unidos xG

51%Both score

38%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–013%

0–112%

0–011%

2–18%

2–07%

From our goals model: Deportivo Merlo 1.1 – 1.1 Defensores Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Deportivo Merlo to win ✗	39%	2.55	2.20
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	74%	1.35	1.40
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	51%	1.97	2.10 ▲
Draw no bet	Deportivo Merlo (draw no bet)	53%	1.89	–
Asian handicap	Defensores Unidos +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	62%	1.60	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	65%	1.54	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	62%	1.61	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	82%	1.22	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	93%	1.08	–
First team to score	Deportivo Merlo to score first ✗	46%	2.16	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	47%	2.11	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Deportivo Merlo / FT Deportivo Merlo ✗	21%	4.70	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	13.03	–

Deportivo Merlo – last 6

LLDDLD

31 Aug	@ Comunicaciones	0–1	L
26 Aug	vs Dock Sud	1–2	L
22 Aug	@ Ituzaingó	0–0	D
15 Aug	@ Deportivo Camioneros	0–0	D
9 Aug	vs Sportivo Italiano	0–4	L
2 Aug	@ San Martín Burzaco	1–1	D

0.3Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Defensores Unidos – last 6

DWWLLL

29 Aug	vs Deportivo Camioneros	0–0	D
25 Aug	@ Sportivo Italiano	2–0	W
22 Aug	vs San Martín Burzaco	2–0	W
16 Aug	@ Villa San Carlos	0–1	L
8 Aug	vs Liniers	2–3	L
1 Aug	@ Real Pilar	1–2	L

1.2Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	+36	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	42	21	14	7	+28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	+15	72
4	Talleres Remedios	42	20	11	11	+19	71
5	Deportivo Camioneros	42	19	13	10	+15	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	+12	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	+4	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	+3	63
9	Comunicaciones	42	15	15	12	+5	60
10	Deportivo Laferrere	42	15	14	13	-2	59
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	-5	51
12	San Martín Burzaco	42	12	15	15	-6	51
13	Argentino de Merlo	42	13	11	18	-6	50
14	Flandria	42	13	10	19	-10	49
15	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	-15	49
16	Liniers	42	11	15	16	-7	48
17	Argentino Quilmes	42	10	17	15	-8	47
18	Dock Sud	42	11	14	17	-9	47
19	Defensores Unidos	42	10	16	16	-6	46
20	Brown DE Adrogue	42	10	16	16	-12	46
21	UAI Urquiza	42	8	21	13	-10	45
22	Ituzaingó	42	1	14	27	-41	17

Team

Pts

+36

+28

+15

+19

+15

+12

-2

-5

-6

-6

-10

-15

-7

-8

-9

-6

-12

-10

-41

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.

Who will win Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?

On our numbers Deportivo Merlo have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Defensores Unidos 35%.

How many goals will there be in Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?

Our predicted score is Deportivo Merlo 1–1 Defensores Unidos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos?

Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Deportivo Merlo v Defensores Unidos: numbers & prediction