Value bet: Lujan to win @ 3.25 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLujan to win ✓36% · @3.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓70% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.45
Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estrella Del Sur welcome Lujan for a Primera C fixture on Tuesday 4 August (19:00 WAT). In the table, Estrella Del Sur are 3rd, among the top four, on 48 points after 32 matches; Lujan are 1st (leading the league) with 64. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Estrella Del Sur, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mercedes, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Lujan, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Claypole, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estrella Del Sur 0.9 xG, Lujan 1.1 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estrella Del Sur 34%, draw 30%, Lujan 36%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Lujan to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estrella Del Sur 0–1 Lujan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estrella Del Sur34%fair 2.94 · @2.30
Draw30%fair 3.32 · @2.70
Lujan36%fair 2.79 · @3.25
1.95Expected goals
0.86Estrella Del Sur xG
1.09Lujan xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Estrella Del Sur 0.9 – 1.1 Lujan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Estrella Del Sur
Lujan
Attack vs Primera C average
-1%
+68%
Goals conceded vs average
-10%
-34%
Our expected goals here
0.71
1.24
Our own ratings from every Primera C result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lujan to win✓
36%
2.79
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.50
Draw no bet
Lujan (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Estrella Del Sur +1 (Asian handicap)✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.10
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
1.02
First team to score
Lujan to score first✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lujan / FT Lujan✗
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.45
–
Recent results
Estrella Del Sur – last 6
DWLWWL
31 Jul
@ Mercedes
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Deportivo Paraguayo
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ Puerto Nuevo
0–1
L
4 Jul
vs Leandro N. Alem
3–0
W
28 Jun
@ Defensores de Cambaceres
3–0
W
14 Jun
@ Juventud Unida
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lujan – last 6
WWDWLW
31 Jul
@ Claypole
3–1
W
26 Jul
vs Central Ballester
3–1
W
11 Jul
@ El Porvenir
0–0
D
5 Jul
vs Fénix
2–1
W
29 Jun
@ Sportivo Barracas
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs Yupanqui
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrella Del Sur and Lujan.
What is the prediction for Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan?
On our numbers Estrella Del Sur have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Lujan 36%.
How many goals will there be in Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan?
Our predicted score is Estrella Del Sur 0–1 Lujan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan?
Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan (Primera C) kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Atletico Atlas0
Central Cordoba0
Claypole0
Central Ballester0
Leones de Rosario1