Deportivo Paraguayo v Lugano Prediction & Expected Goals (26 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultLugano to win ✗57% · @1.90

Double chanceLugano or draw ✓80% · @1.17

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.50

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.14

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.58

Deportivo Paraguayo vs Lugano: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Deportivo Paraguayo welcome Lugano for a Primera C fixture on Saturday 26 September (19:00 WAT). In the table, Deportivo Paraguayo are 12th, in the drop zone, on 32 points after 32 matches; Lugano are 7th (upper half) with 46. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Deportivo Paraguayo, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Puerto Nuevo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Lugano, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Estrella Del Sur, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (30 May 2026) it ended Lugano 0–0 Deportivo Paraguayo.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Paraguayo 0.7 xG, Lugano 1.4 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Paraguayo 20%, draw 23%, Lugano 57%.
Lower-risk option: Lugano or draw (80%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Lugano to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Paraguayo 0–1 Lugano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Deportivo Paraguayo20%fair 4.97 · @4.20

Draw23%fair 4.28 · @2.90

Lugano57%fair 1.77 · @1.90

2.04Expected goals

0.66Deportivo Paraguayo xG

1.38Lugano xG

48%Both score

34%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–118%

0–013%

0–212%

1–112%

1–09%

1–28%

From our goals model: Deportivo Paraguayo 0.7 – 1.4 Lugano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Lugano to win ✗	57%	1.77	1.90 ▲
Double chance	Lugano or draw ✓	80%	1.25	1.17
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	52%	1.92	1.50
Draw no bet	Lugano (draw no bet)	74%	1.36	–
Asian handicap	Deportivo Paraguayo +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	60%	1.67	1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	66%	1.53	1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	83%	1.20	1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	92%	1.09	1.04
First team to score	Lugano to score first	59%	1.70	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	48%	2.07	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Lugano / FT Lugano ✗	32%	3.11	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✗	18%	5.58	–

Deportivo Paraguayo – last 6

WLWDWL

20 Sep	@ Puerto Nuevo	3–2	W
12 Sep	@ Lujan	0–3	L
6 Sep	vs Leandro N. Alem	4–1	W
29 Aug	@ Defensores de Cambaceres	0–0	D
22 Aug	vs Juventud Unida	2–1	W
16 Aug	vs Sportivo Barracas	0–1	L

1.5Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Lugano – last 6

DDWDWL

20 Sep	vs Estrella Del Sur	1–1	D
12 Sep	vs Leones de Rosario	0–0	D
6 Sep	@ Puerto Nuevo	1–0	W
31 Aug	vs Berazategui	1–1	D
22 Aug	@ Leandro N. Alem	1–0	W
16 Aug	vs Lujan	1–2	L

0.8Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berazategui	32	13	12	7	+16	51
2	Sacachispas	32	14	8	10	+7	50
3	Estrella Del Sur	32	12	12	8	+3	48
4	Centro Español	32	12	11	9	+13	47
5	Mercedes	32	12	11	9	+7	47
6	Victoriano Arenas	32	11	14	7	+7	47
7	Lugano	32	11	13	8	+6	46
8	Juventud Unida	32	12	9	11	+6	45
9	Puerto Nuevo	32	10	11	11	-6	41
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	32	9	9	14	-9	36
11	JJ Urquiza	32	7	14	11	-5	35
12	Deportivo Paraguayo	32	7	11	14	-18	32
13	Leandro N. Alem	32	8	7	17	-28	31
14	Argentino Rosario	32	4	15	13	-12	27

Team

Pts

+16

+13

-6

Defensores de Cambaceres

-9

-5

-18

-28

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportivo Paraguayo vs Lugano?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Deportivo Paraguayo vs Lugano?

On our numbers Deportivo Paraguayo have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lugano 57%.

How many goals will there be in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Lugano?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Paraguayo vs Lugano?

Our predicted score is Deportivo Paraguayo 0–1 Lugano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Deportivo Paraguayo vs Lugano?

Deportivo Paraguayo vs Lugano (Primera C) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Deportivo Paraguayo v Lugano: numbers & prediction