Mercedes 43%Draw 25%Puerto Nuevo 32%Expected goals 1.09 – 0.87
68%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultMercedes to win ✓43% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.49
Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Puerto Nuevo travel to face Mercedes on Friday 25 September in the Primera C – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT. In the table, Mercedes are 5th, upper half, on 47 points after 32 matches; Puerto Nuevo are 9th (lower half) with 41.
Current form
Mercedes, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Leandro N. Alem, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Puerto Nuevo, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Deportivo Paraguayo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mercedes, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Puerto Nuevo.
Head to head
When they last met (30 May 2026) it ended Puerto Nuevo 1–1 Mercedes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mercedes 1.1 xG, Puerto Nuevo 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mercedes 43%, draw 25%, Puerto Nuevo 32%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mercedes 1–0 Puerto Nuevo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mercedes43%fair 2.30 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.80
Puerto Nuevo32%fair 3.15 · @3.10
1.96Expected goals
1.09Mercedes xG
0.87Puerto Nuevo xG
48%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mercedes 1.1 – 0.9 Puerto Nuevo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
On our numbers Mercedes have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Puerto Nuevo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
Our predicted score is Mercedes 1–0 Puerto Nuevo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo (Primera C) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
