Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMexico to win ✓62% · @1.23
Double chanceMexico or draw ✓85% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.19
Mexico vs Iceland: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 26 February the Friendlies brings Mexico against Iceland. Kick-off: 03:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mexico 1.5 xG, Iceland 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mexico 62%, draw 22%, Iceland 15%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (71%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.40, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mexico 1–0 Iceland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mexico62%fair 1.60 · @1.23
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @5.50
Iceland15%fair 6.57 · @13.00
2.20Expected goals
1.46Mexico xG
0.74Iceland xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Mexico 1.5 – 0.7 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mexico
Iceland
Attack vs Friendlies average
-21%
-13%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+1%
Our expected goals here
1.38
1.03
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mexico to win✓
62%
1.60
1.23
Double chance
Mexico or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.70
Draw no bet
Mexico (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Iceland +1 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
2.38 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.55 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.22
First team to score
Mexico to score first✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mexico / FT Mexico✓
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.19
–
Recent results
Mexico
No recent results on record.
Iceland
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and Iceland.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Mexico vs Iceland?
On our numbers Mexico have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Iceland 15%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs Iceland?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Iceland?
Our predicted score is Mexico 1–0 Iceland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mexico vs Iceland?
Mexico vs Iceland (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
