Value bet: Ferroviária to win @ 1.60 – our chance 67% vs 63% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFerroviária to win ✓67% · @1.60
Double chanceFerroviária or draw ✓88% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Ferroviária vs Monte Azul: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ferroviária welcome Monte Azul for a Paulista A2 fixture on Sunday 22 February (22:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ferroviária 1.8 xG, Monte Azul 0.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ferroviária 67%, draw 21%, Monte Azul 12%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Ferroviária to win @1.60 – the bookmaker implies 63%, our ratings say 67%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ferroviária 1–0 Monte Azul. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ferroviária67%fair 1.50 · @1.60
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.45
Monte Azul12%fair 8.35 · @5.40
2.46Expected goals
1.84Ferroviária xG
0.62Monte Azul xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–09%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.8 – 0.6 Monte Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✓
67%
1.50
1.60 ▲
Double chance
Ferroviária or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.95
Draw no bet
Ferroviária (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Ferroviária -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
First team to score
Ferroviária to score first✓
68%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Ferroviária ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✓
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.15
–
Recent results
Ferroviária – last 1
D
19 Feb
@ São José EC
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Monte Azul – last 1
D
18 Feb
vs Oeste
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Monte Azul.
What is the prediction for Ferroviária vs Monte Azul?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Monte Azul?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Monte Azul 12%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Monte Azul?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Monte Azul?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–0 Monte Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Monte Azul?
Ferroviária vs Monte Azul (Paulista A2) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A2 · Brazil
Juventus0
Sao Bento0
Linense0
Grêmio Prudente2
Oeste1
Votuporanguense2
XV de Piracicaba1
Inter De Limeira0