Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRio Claro to win ✗37% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.92
Itapirense vs Rio Claro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Itapirense welcome Rio Claro for a Paulista A3 fixture on Thursday 26 February (23:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Itapirense 1.3 xG, Rio Claro 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Itapirense 37%, draw 27%, Rio Claro 37%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Itapirense 1–1 Rio Claro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Itapirense37%fair 2.74 · @2.75
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.00
Rio Claro37%fair 2.73 · @2.50
2.57Expected goals
1.34Itapirense xG
1.23Rio Claro xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Itapirense 1.3 – 1.2 Rio Claro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rio Claro to win✗
37%
2.73
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.83 ▲
Draw no bet
Rio Claro (draw no bet)
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Rio Claro +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Itapirense to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Itapirense / FT Itapirense✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.92
–
Recent results
Itapirense – last 2
LL
22 Feb
@ Portuguesa Santista
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Bandeirante SP
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rio Claro – last 1
W
22 Feb
vs Desportivo Brasil
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Itapirense and Rio Claro.
What is the prediction for Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
On our numbers Itapirense have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Rio Claro 37%.
How many goals will there be in Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
Our predicted score is Itapirense 1–1 Rio Claro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
Itapirense vs Rio Claro (Paulista A3) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A3 · Brazil
