AFC Malmo 57%Draw 22%Lund 21%Expected goals 1.94 – 1.10
79%
Betarazi pick
AFC Malmo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: AFC Malmo to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAFC Malmo to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceAFC Malmo or draw ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10
AFC Malmo vs Lund: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 22 August the Ettan Södra brings AFC Malmo against Lund at Hyllie IP. Kick-off: 12:00 WAT. In the table, AFC Malmo are 4th, among the top four, on 47 points after 30 matches; Lund are 2nd (among the top four) with 53.
Current form
AFC Malmo, last 5: DLDWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Olympic, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Lund, last 5: LDDWD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Hässleholms IF, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Jun 2026) it ended Lund 1–4 AFC Malmo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AFC Malmo 1.9 xG, Lund 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AFC Malmo 57%, draw 22%, Lund 21%.
Lower-risk option: AFC Malmo or draw (79%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: AFC Malmo to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was AFC Malmo or draw (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: AFC Malmo 1–1 Lund. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AFC Malmo57%fair 1.75 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.60
Lund21%fair 4.73 · @3.30
3.04Expected goals
1.94AFC Malmo xG
1.10Lund xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: AFC Malmo 1.9 – 1.1 Lund expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is AFC Malmo or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AFC Malmo vs Lund?
On our numbers AFC Malmo have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lund 21%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Malmo vs Lund?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AFC Malmo vs Lund?
Our predicted score is AFC Malmo 1–1 Lund, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is AFC Malmo vs Lund?
AFC Malmo vs Lund (Ettan Södra) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Hyllie IP.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
