Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCerro Porteno to win ✗47% · @1.78
Double chanceCerro Porteno or draw ✗75% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.14
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Monday 16 February: Cerro Porteno v Nacional Asuncion in the Division Profesional Apertura, played at General Pablo Rojas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro Porteno 1.3 xG, Nacional Asuncion 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro Porteno 47%, draw 28%, Nacional Asuncion 25%.
Lower-risk option: Cerro Porteno or draw (75%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro Porteno 1–1 Nacional Asuncion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro Porteno47%fair 2.14 · @1.78
Draw28%fair 3.51 · @3.30
Nacional Asuncion25%fair 4.02 · @4.45
2.37Expected goals
1.26Cerro Porteno xG
1.11Nacional Asuncion xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cerro Porteno 1.3 – 1.1 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerro Porteno to win✗
47%
2.14
1.78
Double chance
Cerro Porteno or draw✗
75%
1.33
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Cerro Porteno (draw no bet)✗
65%
1.53
–
Asian handicap
Nacional Asuncion +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Cerro Porteno to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerro Porteno / FT Cerro Porteno✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.14
–
Recent results
Cerro Porteno
No recent results on record.
Nacional Asuncion
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro Porteno and Nacional Asuncion.
What is the prediction for Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
On our numbers Cerro Porteno have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Nacional Asuncion 25%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Cerro Porteno 1–1 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at General Pablo Rojas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · General Pablo Rojas
