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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Libertad Asuncion v Nacional Asuncion: numbers & prediction

Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Libertad Asuncion

WWWLL
2–1
FT

Nacional Asuncion

DDDW
Libertad Asuncion 38%Draw 28%Nacional Asuncion 34% Expected goals 1.09 – 1.20
66%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2

Value bet: Nacional Asuncion to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultLibertad Asuncion to win ✓38% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓7% · fair 13.80

Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Libertad Asuncion welcome Nacional Asuncion to Estadio Tigo La Huerta for a Division Profesional Apertura fixture on Thursday 19 March (00:30 WAT).

Current form

Libertad Asuncion, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over 2 de Mayo, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Nacional Asuncion, last 4: DDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sportivo Trinidense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Libertad Asuncion 1.1 xG, Nacional Asuncion 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Libertad Asuncion 38%, draw 28%, Nacional Asuncion 34%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Nacional Asuncion to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Nacional Asuncion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Libertad Asuncion38%fair 2.63 · @2.14
Draw28%fair 3.57 · @3.05
Nacional Asuncion34%fair 2.94 · @3.40
2.30Expected goals
1.09Libertad Asuncion xG
1.20Nacional Asuncion xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–27%

From our goals model: Libertad Asuncion 1.1 – 1.2 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLibertad Asuncion to win ✓38%2.632.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72%1.391.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓51%1.951.95
Draw no betLibertad Asuncion (draw no bet) ✓53%1.90–
Asian handicapLibertad Asuncion +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓66%1.521.45
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗60%1.661.53
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80%1.261.18
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓92%1.09–
First team to scoreNacional Asuncion to score first ✗47%2.13–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.16–
Half-time / full-timeHT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion ✗22%4.57–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓7%13.80–

Recent results

Libertad Asuncion – last 5

WWWLL
14 Mar@ 2 de Mayo2–0W
8 Marvs Sportivo Luqueno1–0W
3 Mar@ Club Sp. San Lorenzo7–0W
26 Feb@ Olimpia0–1L
20 Febvs Rubio NU0–1L
2.0Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
0%Both scored
20%Over 2.5

Nacional Asuncion – last 4

DDDW
9 Mar@ Sportivo Trinidense1–1D
27 Feb@ Deportivo Recoleta2–2D
20 Febvs Sportivo Ameliano1–1D
16 Feb@ Cerro Porteno2–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Libertad Asuncion and Nacional Asuncion.

Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion head-to-head page →

More Division Profesional Apertura predictions

FT Club Guarani3 Deportivo Recoleta1 153%1.82X26%3.40222%4.00 1.6–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.30 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.

Who will win Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

On our numbers Libertad Asuncion have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Nacional Asuncion 34%.

How many goals will there be in Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

Our predicted score is Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tigo La Huerta.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.