Nacional Asuncion 56%Draw 24%Sportivo Luqueno 20%Expected goals 1.69 – 0.74
80%
Betarazi pick
Nacional Asuncion or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Nacional Asuncion to win @ 1.98 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✓56% · @1.98
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.74
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nacional Asuncion welcome Sportivo Luqueno to Estadio Arsenio Erico for a Division Profesional Apertura fixture on Friday 27 March (22:30 WAT).
Current form
Nacional Asuncion, last 5: LDDDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Libertad Asuncion, away. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Sportivo Luqueno, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to 2 de Mayo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Nacional Asuncion, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Sportivo Luqueno.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional Asuncion 1.7 xG, Sportivo Luqueno 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional Asuncion 56%, draw 24%, Sportivo Luqueno 20%.
Lower-risk option: Nacional Asuncion or draw (80%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Nacional Asuncion to win @1.98 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Nacional Asuncion or draw (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional Asuncion56%fair 1.79 · @1.98
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.10
Sportivo Luqueno20%fair 5.01 · @3.80
2.43Expected goals
1.69Nacional Asuncion xG
0.74Sportivo Luqueno xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.7 – 0.7 Sportivo Luqueno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional Asuncion to win✓
56%
1.79
1.98 ▲
Double chance
Nacional Asuncion or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Nacional Asuncion (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Nacional Asuncion -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Nacional Asuncion to score first
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.74
–
Recent results
Nacional Asuncion – last 5
LDDDW
19 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Deportivo Recoleta
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Sportivo Ameliano
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Cerro Porteno
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Sportivo Luqueno – last 6
LLDLLD
23 Mar
vs 2 de Mayo
0–2
L
18 Mar
@ Olimpia
0–1
L
13 Mar
vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
0–1
L
2 Mar
vs Rubio NU
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional Asuncion and Sportivo Luqueno.
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sportivo Luqueno 20%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Luqueno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arsenio Erico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Arsenio Erico
