Value bet: Umeå FC to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIF Karlstad to win ✓39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.63
Umeå FC vs IF Karlstad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 24 May the Ettan Norra brings Umeå FC against IF Karlstad at Umea Energi Arena. Kick-off: 12:00 WAT. In the table, Umeå FC are 8th, upper half, on 43 points after 30 matches; IF Karlstad are 7th (upper half) with 45. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Umeå FC, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FBK Karlstad, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
IF Karlstad, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Vasalund, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Umeå FC 1.5 xG, IF Karlstad 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Umeå FC 38%, draw 24%, IF Karlstad 39%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Umeå FC to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Umeå FC 1–1 IF Karlstad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Umeå FC38%fair 2.64 · @2.88
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.60
IF Karlstad39%fair 2.60 · @2.05
2.81Expected goals
1.48Umeå FC xG
1.34IF Karlstad xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Umeå FC 1.5 – 1.3 IF Karlstad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
IF Karlstad to win✓
39%
2.60
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.62
Draw no bet
IF Karlstad (draw no bet)✓
50%
1.98
–
Asian handicap
IF Karlstad +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
First team to score
Umeå FC to score first✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Umeå FC / FT Umeå FC✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.63
–
Recent results
Umeå FC – last 6
DWDWLL
17 May
@ FBK Karlstad
1–1
D
14 May
@ Assyriska FF
5–1
W
9 May
vs Gefle IF
2–2
D
3 May
vs Karlberg
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ Stockholm Internazionale
0–3
L
19 Apr
@ Vasalund
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
IF Karlstad – last 6
WWWLLL
17 May
vs Vasalund
5–0
W
14 May
vs Stocksund
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs Piteå
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Varbergs BoIS FC
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Malmo FF
0–4
L
22 Feb
vs Halmstad
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Umeå FC and IF Karlstad.
What is the prediction for Umeå FC vs IF Karlstad?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Umeå FC vs IF Karlstad?
On our numbers Umeå FC have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and IF Karlstad 39%.
How many goals will there be in Umeå FC vs IF Karlstad?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Umeå FC vs IF Karlstad?
Our predicted score is Umeå FC 1–1 IF Karlstad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Umeå FC vs IF Karlstad?
Umeå FC vs IF Karlstad (Ettan Norra) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Umea Energi Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
