Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓40% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.23
Junior vs Atletico Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:30 WAT, Wednesday 11 March: Junior v Atletico Nacional in the Primera A, played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez. In the table, Junior are 14th, lower half, on 19 points after 18 matches; Atletico Nacional are 1st (leading the league) with 39. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Junior, last 4: DWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Alianza Valledupar, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Atletico Nacional, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Millonarios, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Junior 1.3 xG, Atletico Nacional 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Junior 34%, draw 25%, Atletico Nacional 40%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Junior 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Junior34%fair 2.90 · @2.68
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.25
Atletico Nacional40%fair 2.49 · @2.58
2.84Expected goals
1.32Junior xG
1.52Atletico Nacional xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–27%
From our goals model: Junior 1.3 – 1.5 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Junior
Atletico Nacional
Attack vs Primera A average
+13%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-19%
Our expected goals here
1.34
1.67
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
40%
2.49
2.58
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.75 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Nacional (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Junior +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.10
First team to score
Atletico Nacional to score first✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✓
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.23
–
Recent results
Junior – last 4
DWLW
6 Mar
vs Alianza Valledupar
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Jaguares
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
19 Feb
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 6
LLWWLW
5 Mar
vs Millonarios
1–3
L
2 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Santa Fe
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Alianza Valledupar
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Junior and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Junior have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico Nacional 40%.
How many goals will there be in Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Junior 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Junior vs Atletico Nacional?
Junior vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
