Value bet: Santa Fe to win @ 3.35 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓41% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 11.85
Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santa Fe welcome Atletico Nacional to Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin for a Primera A fixture on Thursday 26 February (01:00 WAT). In the table, Santa Fe are 5th, upper half, on 31 points after 18 matches; Atletico Nacional are 1st (leading the league) with 39.
Current form
Santa Fe, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Junior, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Atletico Nacional, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Alianza Valledupar, at home. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Momentum favours Atletico Nacional, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Santa Fe.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santa Fe 1.3 xG, Atletico Nacional 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santa Fe 32%, draw 27%, Atletico Nacional 41%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Santa Fe to win @3.35 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santa Fe 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santa Fe32%fair 3.10 · @3.35
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.10
Atletico Nacional41%fair 2.43 · @2.22
2.66Expected goals
1.29Santa Fe xG
1.37Atletico Nacional xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Santa Fe 1.3 – 1.4 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Santa Fe
Atletico Nacional
Attack vs Primera A average
+19%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
-17%
-19%
Our expected goals here
1.42
1.30
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
41%
2.43
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Nacional (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Santa Fe +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.09
First team to score
Atletico Nacional to score first✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
11.85
–
Recent results
Santa Fe – last 3
WLL
22 Feb
vs Junior
2–1
W
18 Feb
@ Jaguares
1–3
L
14 Feb
@ America de Cali
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Nacional – last 3
WLW
22 Feb
vs Alianza Valledupar
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Fe and Atletico Nacional.
What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Santa Fe have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Atletico Nacional 41%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Santa Fe 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional?
Santa Fe vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
