Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓88% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.74
Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Valledupar travel to face Atletico Nacional on Sunday 22 February in the Primera A, with Estadio Atanasio Girardot the venue – the ball rolls at 00:20 WAT. In the table, Atletico Nacional are 1st, leading the league, on 39 points after 18 matches; Alianza Valledupar are 16th (lower half) with 18. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 2.3 xG, Alianza Valledupar 0.7 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 50% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 70%, draw 18%, Alianza Valledupar 12%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.10.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.24). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 2–0 Alianza Valledupar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Nacional70%fair 1.42 · @1.35
Draw18%fair 5.63 · @4.75
Alianza Valledupar12%fair 8.35 · @7.25
2.99Expected goals
2.27Atletico Nacional xG
0.71Alianza Valledupar xG
50%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 2.3 – 0.7 Alianza Valledupar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Nacional
Alianza Valledupar
Attack vs Primera A average
+48%
-19%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
+22%
Our expected goals here
2.65
0.70
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Double chance
Atletico Nacional or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Nacional (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Nacional -1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.37
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.14
First team to score
Atletico Nacional to score first✓
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Atletico Nacional ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✓
49%
2.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.74
–
Recent results
Atletico Nacional – last 2
LW
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alianza Valledupar – last 1
D
17 Feb
vs Cucuta
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Nacional and Alianza Valledupar.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Alianza Valledupar 12%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 2–0 Alianza Valledupar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar?
Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Valledupar (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 00:20 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
